U.S.A., October 17, 2025
Photo: YouTube
In a recent two-hour discussion on Ancient Faith Radio, three Orthodox researchers presented data suggesting American Orthodoxy will experience significant growth over the next 15 years—but warned the Church is unprepared to handle it.
Fr. Andrew Stephen Damick of Ancient Faith Ministries hosted Matthew Namee of the Orthodox Studies Institute and Deacon Seraphim Rohlin, a professional data scientist also from the Institute, which is part of St. Constantine College in Houston. The team has been collecting and analyzing data on Orthodox Christianity in America for over two years.
A second wave of converts
The panelists reported that the convert surge has not slowed down and may be entering a second wave. While the COVID-era surge saw primarily young single men, the current influx consists predominantly of young families with two to three children, along with a notable increase in Hispanic and African-American inquirers.
Dcn. Seraphim, who serves as a catechist at his Dallas parish, said approximately 65 people currently attend the catechumen and inquirers class on Sundays—extraordinary compared to the 20 or 30 that would have been typical just three or four years ago. Current demographics break down to approximately 25% former Roman Catholics, 50% former Protestants, and 25% totally unchurched individuals.
Orthodox growth among younger generations
According to an Orthodox Studies Institute report on American Orthodox college students, approximately 1-1.5% of college students identify as Orthodox Christian, based on surveys including one of 60,000 students.
“We can very confidently say that about 1% of Gen Z is Orthodox as opposed to about 0.5% of Gen X,” Dcn. Seraphim explained. This represents a doubling of Orthodox representation among younger Americans. Data from FIRE shows Orthodoxy increased by 0.5% over the last five years among college students, while self-identifying Protestants decreased by almost 6%.
2040 projections and the clergy crisis
Based on current trends, the conservative estimate projects 2.77 million Orthodox Christians by 2040—a 69% increase. The moderate estimate projects 3.52 million—a 115% increase. To maintain current parish density, this would require founding between 1,385 and 2,350 new parishes over 15 years.
However, the three main Orthodox seminaries graduate only about 45 Master of Divinity students per year, with only about 30 becoming Eastern Orthodox priests. The current attrition deficit—simply replacing priests lost to retirement and death—already exceeds 100 priests per year.
To maintain current parish density with conservative growth would require ordaining approximately 160 priests annually.
The panelists discussed various solutions for addressing the clergy shortage. To hear their full analysis and proposals, watch the complete discussion:
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